VENDÉE GLOBE: BORIS STILL LEADING, BEST FINAL EVER

At two days from the end three boats on the fight for victory! Never happened before and when I mean fighting, I really mean that the chances are almost equal for the three, Boris, Dalin and Burton. 

With a difficult scenario ahead, with changing winds, the navigation has assumed an unexpected decisive role on this final stage, with several possible routes from Azores to Les Sables. 

Two days ago they were four fighting for the win but Bestavens’s route option, leaving the central Islands of Azores to the East proved to be excessive and now even Ruyant has managed to overtake him. 

When they were approaching the Azores, before taking very different routes, Dalin was leading on the water with a 34.7 miles advantage to Burton and 61.8 miles to Boris who, with 6 hours of compensation time to be discounted, was in fact leading the race.

Ruyant was 91.5 miles away from Dalin and Bestaven 155.7 miles, but with a compensation time of 10 hours 15 minutes, Bestaven was very much in the fight for victory. 

With only 680 miles to go, Ruyant and Bestaven at 184.5 and 253.8 miles to the leader, are out of the race to the win, but the very different courses of Dalin and Ruyant gave similar results to the point of being difficult to know who wins or loses this particular round. 

I guess that we will only know that in the next 22 hours, since the two departing points for the long tack to the North, offshore the Portuguese coast, are different with Dalin more to the East and Ruyant more to the West and it is difficult to foretell the advantages of Burton’s position. 

Boris, that I thought would be tailing Burton, because he only needs to stay close behind the leader to win the race, has done more than that and in the last 12 hours chose his own route, leaving Burton and putting his boat nearer to Dalin’s, but more to the west. 

On the route Burton has chosen there is more wind but it is 35 miles longer. Can he recover and gain over that distance in 370 miles before the final tack for Sables d’Olonne? I don’t know but it seems difficult. 

Assuming a 16.5kt average VMG speed it would take 22 hours to reach the point for the final tack, and for recovering those 35 miles that would mean a gain of 1.6kt on average speed from Burton over Dalin. Not an easy task and some luck needed.

Burton seems to be the one nearer the victory due to his compensation time and because he only has to maintain the 78 nm at which he is now from Dalin to win the race and it seems to me that his course more to the West gives him some slight advantage, in the hours to come. In fact I believe he can still lose a dozen miles for Dalin and still win the race.

This post was made having as reference the data available at 14.00, race time. The map shows the conditions they are going to encounter on the last tack to France and those are very good sailing conditions that will give an average speed between 14 and 18 knots.

Assuming an average speed of 16kt on the last leg (about 320nm) that would mean that the 6 hours Boris compensation in time, will be translated in about 96 miles and that should be more or less (depending on the average speed) the distance that Dalin has be ahead of him for winning the race. 

It could hardly have been more interesting. Even the incertitude brought by Boris time compensation introduced a bigger level of suspense on the final stages of the race. I guess they have been sleeping very little on the last days and are going to sleep even less on the next two days. 

The only thing for sure, regarding the end of the race is that on arrival the first three will be completely exhausted, having given all they could to win the Vendée. A titanic fight for the finish.

VENDÉE GLOBE: BORIS LEADING THE RACE, BESTAVEN 2ND

The leader of a race is the one that will win it if the race finished at that point and if the race finished right now, at the time I am writing this, Boris would win, Bestaven would be second , Dalin third and Burton 4th. 

Why: Boris has been making on the last 4 hours a 18.0 kt average speed, he is at 78.1 miles from Dalin that leads on the water and has a 6 hour compensation time, the one he lost looking for Escoffier at organization’s request. 

If Dalin crossed the finish line right now that time would be recorded and when Boris crossed the line, his time would also be recorded and 6 hours would be taken from that time being the winner the one that ended up with the shortest time. 

Assuming Boris would maintain for more 6 hours the average he maintained on the last 4 hours (18.0 kt), the distance that separates him from Dalin( 78.1 miles), would be made in 4 hours and 23 minutes, meaning that the winner would be Boris with an advantage of 1 hour and 26 minutes. 

Looking now at Bestaven, and also assuming that he is maintaining for more 10 hours and 15 minutes the average of the last 4 hours (16.2 kt) he would take 10 hours and 4 minutes to make the 163.0 miles that separate him from Dalin and would leave him 11 minutes behind. 

Of course, that would be now, but the leader of a race is the one who would win it at a given point and the ones leading would be at this point and quite clearly Boris 1st and the 2nd Bestaven. Of course it depends on the average speed that they will maintain on the compensation hours they have, that can be smaller or bigger than the one they made on the last 4 hours. 

But the fact is that Boris and Bestaven are very much in the race for the win and contrary to what many would expect they are not losing miles for Dalin, but winning: Dalin made a 15.0 kt VMG average on the last 24 hours, Boris made 15.4 and Bestaven a 15.5 kt average. 

The only one that is winning miles over them is Burton that made a 16.0 kt average on the last 24 hours. Fantastic race with these four very close in what regards the fight for the first position and with great chances of winning the race, when they are at 1337 nautical miles from the finish line…. and what a finish it will be!

VENDÉE GLOBE: BURTON - 4th?...2nd?...or 1st?

Whoever does the math in the organization places him at 4th, 108 miles from the first which is obviously a nonsense, and I say this for the simple reason that so far Burton's strategy is paying off, having managed to maintain over water an average 2 knots faster than Dalin and having already left the zone of the weakest winds, while Dalin still has a few hours to go. Burton is now 6.3 knots faster than him (on water) but also 5.2 knots faster in VMG. 

It is evident that he is either 1st or second, having been in a titanic fight for days with Dalin, that sailing over the side of the damaged foil tries, with a more direct route, not to lose much, while Burton, with the foil intact, but older in design and performance, tries to sail where the conditions give him a greater speed differential for Dalin, making a longer route, but faster on the water, side by side, but with a big lateral gap between the two, that Burton increased over time. 

I would say that when it comes to crossing the high pressure zone without losing time, it is practically a tie between Burton and Dalin. They remain side by side although with a lateral difference of 230 miles, which is huge for this area of ​​the Atlantic. 

The organization continues to give the classifications having as reference the most eastern island of the Azores, Santa Maria, which is nonsense because no one, except perhaps Seguin, will pass it by, all going further west. Burton will be the one to pass more to the west probably west of the central group (west of Faial) or even close to Corvo Island, the Azores western Island. 

It is now clear what Burton is trying to do and it is unbelievable that he planned this course a week ago in function of what he has ahead now: he will try to avoid the area of ​​high pressure and light winds, that everyone would encounter along the way if they sailed in the direction where the organization considers they are sailing to (island of Stª Maria), and will try to make the most of the strong winds of a storm that comes from the West to the East, and that will dissipate before reaching him at full force. 

As usual, Burton is not afraid of strong bets. Will he succeed? Only time will tell but he knows he has to bet strong because in a couple of days, both Dalin and Ruyant will be sailing in good conditions over the side of their intact foil, and these conditions will remain until arrival. Both have new generation boats, with bigger and faster foils and will be one and a half knots faster than Burton’s boat, and there is nothing that Burton can do to counteract that, except to gain in navigation what he cannot gain in speed. 

None better to confirm what I'm saying than Ruyant. I saw this video after writing this, but I cannot say that I was not satisfied to see it confirm what I say, almost point by point. Listen to what he says, the best race assessment I have seen in a long time.

BURTON RECOVERED 1000 MILES AND IS FIGHTING FOR THE VICTORY

If he wins the race a new legend will be born and he will be the man who on a Vendée made the biggest recovery ever, to the victory. Now he is 2nd at 20 nm from the first, Dalin, and both are fighting a huge battle leaving all the other behind.

He was one of the good surprises of this race, not a favorite, never having won any significant solo race, neither in Mini nor in Class 40 or Figaro and his best result was a 7th place on the last Vendée, a remarkable place since he was racing an old boat.

This was his third Vendeé (abandoned early on his first one after being hit by a fishing boat) and that is remarkable for a 35-year-old sailor and maybe only possible because he married into a legendary sail family, the Escoffier family. Louie Burton's wife and Kevin Escoffier are cousins. For the ones who don't remember Escoffier was the one that was racing in 3rd place when his boat broke in two and was rescued by Le Cam.

His wife, Servane Escoffier, is also a good solo sailor with many transats raced and a circumnavigation race. She learned from his father, Bob Escoffier, also a solo sailor with whom she made some races in duo. But her uncle Franck-Yves Escoffier (Kevin's father) was an even bigger solo sailor.

Franck-Yves was a fishing sailor who became one of the best solo-sailors of his generation, having won many races including three Transat Jacques Vabre and Three Transat Route du Rhum, most of them on a Multi50 that became a legend, "Crêpes Whaou!", a very beautiful trimaran, a boat that surely is remembered by many of you.

So, with a family like that he had something to prove. Well, not anymore after this race, where his performance was unexpectedly good, I would even say extraordinary. This time he is racing in a relatively competitive boat, not one of the new and fastest ones, but one of the best of the older generation, the one that has won the last Vendée Globe.

But having a good boat on this race and being a good sailor is not enough to be among the fastest. Look at Kojiro Shiraishi that with a new top boat and the experience of another Vendee Globe and the 2nd place on a less demanding IMOCA circum-navigation race, was never able to sail consistently among the 13 first and now, after some problems with his mainsail, is racing on the tail of this vendée.

Due to the big number of fast boats on this race, with its small racing pedigree it was already good if Burton was able to race among the 10 first, especially, after having stopped for 5 hours, a penalty for jumping the start line, but after the Cape of Good Hope and on the Indian Ocean, racing near the exclusion line, where the winds were stronger and seas bigger, and for many days, he was 2nd, chasing Dalin that was sailing on a new and faster boat.

Contrary to him Dalin, a year older, is a racing champion with many victories and podium places on the minis, Figaro and IMOCA and one of the big favorites to the victory. All, me included, even if impressed with Louie Burton's performance, did not really think that he was able to beat Dalin or even Ruyant, also with a new boat and an impressive racing pedigree.

And even less when Burton started to have huge problems, first with a malfunctioning auto-pilot then with a damaged mainsail rail, forcing him to reef it on the 2nd reef and preventing the full use of the sail. That handicapped him seriously, he lost time trying to repair, unsuccessfully and was not able to recover to the head of the race. 

He then sailed for many miles with the group of four that included Le Cam and Boris, but having difficulties in keeping the pace, and even that was only possible due to great navigation.

He stopped again for several hours trying to repair the mainsail mast rail and the fixation point of one of the forward sails but it proved to be impossible on the big waves of the southern ocean. Pissed with not being able to compete in speed with the others he decided to make way to a small desolate Island on the Southern Ocean (Macquarie), to look for shelter to do the needed repairs.

Due to the problems with the autopilot, he was not able to sleep and arrived there completely exhausted and needing to sleep some hours. He was planning to do the repairs in 4 hours but things proved to be much more complicated and he lost about 20 hours till he started making his way towards the finishing line.

At that time, the first,  Bestaven, was  938 nm away and he didn't even think he had a chance to overtake him again. But amazingly he did not lose motivation and happy with having again a fully functional boat, attacked relentlessly all the time and after 23 days he overtook Bestaven who in the meantime had been overtaken by Dalin. Now he is chasing again Dalin, that is now the first, winning every day some miles.

Dalin, who has now a foil that is not completely functional, but on a more modern boat, is putting a big fight, so big that they are leaving all behind, being for several days the two fastest on the 24 hours average, but Burton continues winning, little by little, four hours ago he was at 20 miles, now he is at 17.

This incredible recovery will become part of the Vendée history but if Burton manages to win he will not enter the Vendée Legend only as a winner but as the one that has done that after more than a 900-mile recovery, after being penalized with 5 hours, for winning on a boat of an older generation and for starting it not as one of the favorites to the victory.

PIP HARE ENTERS THE VENDÉE GLOBE LEGEND!

Bad luck strikes Pip Hare: She was sailing a 22-year-old boat, the oldest boat on the race, and making a fantastic Vendée. She was in the middle of the classification, having overtaken and leaving behind Alan Roura and Arnaud Boissieres, who are sailing in much more modern sailboats, with new foils.

But one of the rudders broke and we can see on this video a desperate Pip Hare, with the boat with the sails down, on a rough sea, saying that she has a spare but needs a calm sea to try to make a rudder replacement. Pointing to the stormy skies she says that bad weather is on the way and that she does not know when she will have conditions to change the rudder. We can see the despair on her face!

In this video, we see Pip Hare training the maneuver in the port with help. Now imagine doing it alone in the sea conditions shown in the previous video. I would have said that was impossible and the same opinion was shared by the land team that said that she should wait TWO DAYS for better sea conditions.

But she must have thought: I had so much work and suffering to be where I am and am I going to let everyone pass me, losing two days? NO!!!

And she attempted, and incredibly succeeded in replacing the damaged rudder in those sea conditions! A strong will is half the way to do anything, but I still don't understand how she did it. 

Last time I took the rudder out of my boat to repair it took three big men to put it in place, two on the ground to push and one on top to pull the guide cable. The rudder on my boat is a deeper single one, bigger and heavier, but even so, alone and with the rudder moving around on the agitated waters, it seems impossible to me.

Pip Hare just joined the Legend of the Vendée, not that of the winners, but that of men and women who did incredible and seemingly impossible things to continue in the race, and those will be remembered as much as the ones that won the race.

She only has to finish the race to have accomplished a huge feat, not only sportive but in what regards endurance and resourcefulness.

 In what regards the race, with the repair, she lost 210 miles for Roura and Boissieres, that have overtaken her, but she is already on the chase, and being faster than them.

Cheers to Pip Hare that didn't have a big experience with IMOCA, started the race slowly but has become faster and faster to the point of making miracles in what should be the slowest boat in the race and also the more uncomfortable and hard to sail. All the more modern boats offer much bigger protection to the sailor, from the sea and wind, and when the temperature is very low, like on the austral ocean, that can be a big advantage and save a lot of energy.

She deserves a better boat and I hope that after this fantastic race she can get the sponsorship for getting it, even if it is much more difficult to find one in the UK than in France. Certainly, Medallia, a customer feedback management software platform, that sponsors her boat has more than its fair share of publicity revenues with this fantastic performance.