The leader of a race is the one that will win it if the race finished at that point and if the race finished right now, at the time I am writing this, Boris would win, Bestaven would be second , Dalin third and Burton 4th.
Why: Boris has been making on the last 4 hours a 18.0 kt average speed, he is at 78.1 miles from Dalin that leads on the water and has a 6 hour compensation time, the one he lost looking for Escoffier at organization’s request.
If Dalin crossed the finish line right now that time would be recorded and when Boris crossed the line, his time would also be recorded and 6 hours would be taken from that time being the winner the one that ended up with the shortest time.
Assuming Boris would maintain for more 6 hours the average he maintained on the last 4 hours (18.0 kt), the distance that separates him from Dalin( 78.1 miles), would be made in 4 hours and 23 minutes, meaning that the winner would be Boris with an advantage of 1 hour and 26 minutes.
Looking now at Bestaven, and also assuming that he is maintaining for more 10 hours and 15 minutes the average of the last 4 hours (16.2 kt) he would take 10 hours and 4 minutes to make the 163.0 miles that separate him from Dalin and would leave him 11 minutes behind.
Of course, that would be now, but the leader of a race is the one who would win it at a given point and the ones leading would be at this point and quite clearly Boris 1st and the 2nd Bestaven. Of course it depends on the average speed that they will maintain on the compensation hours they have, that can be smaller or bigger than the one they made on the last 4 hours.
But the fact is that Boris and Bestaven are very much in the race for the win and contrary to what many would expect they are not losing miles for Dalin, but winning: Dalin made a 15.0 kt VMG average on the last 24 hours, Boris made 15.4 and Bestaven a 15.5 kt average.
The only one that is winning miles over them is Burton that made a 16.0 kt average on the last 24 hours. Fantastic race with these four very close in what regards the fight for the first position and with great chances of winning the race, when they are at 1337 nautical miles from the finish line…. and what a finish it will be!
This is not how it works because they don't all finish simultaneously.
ReplyDeleteTherefore they will sail in different conditions of sea and wind.
When a boat finishes and another that has a compensation in time continues in regatta, what will happen is that it may arrive within that period and it will beat the one that arrived before or that does not achieve it.
This depends on the weather conditions in that period, if the conditions are very good and the pursuer develops good speed, it is a greater probability of winning but if, on the contrary, the pursuer calms down, it may be that he will not reach the goal in his time. compensation.
It is absurd to calculate how much a boat would travel in the following hours as well as to suppose that she will have a breakdown, etc, etc, the race ends when they cross and clear the finish line and the classification will be subject to repairs and penalties
At the time it involved some assumptions, like the average speed on the last 4 hours to be maintained.
DeleteNow, 7 hours later I can say without any doubt that at that time, not only Boris Herrmann was the leader as I can say that it was the leader by a superior time time margin than the one I had considered, because on the last 7 hours his speed average (VMG) is faster than the considered average, that was based on the previous (to the post) 4 hour average between 11,00am and 14.00pm.
Did you read the post?
ReplyDeleteWhen you say someone is leading at a given point that means that if the race ended at that point the one that is leading would won the race.
What I have done was to see at a given point, 6 hours ago, who would be leading at that point, considering that the first had already arrived, and considering the time the others that have compensation time, would take to arrive to that point, at the average they were making on the last 4 hours.
It was not about who is going to win the race but about who was leading it at a given point. 6 hours later what I said is confirmed by the superior average (VMG) of Bestaven and Boris that have closed on Burton and Boris.
THE LAST 4 HOURS SUPPORT WHAT I SAID ABOUT THE CLASSIFICATION:
ReplyDeleteI made the above post when I realized that in fact Dalin and Burton didn't went away from Boris and Bestaven, as I, and many would expect. And that changes everything because Boris and Bestaven do not need to overtake them to win the race.
In the previous four hours, Bestaven and Boris have been faster (VMG) than Dalin and slower than Burton, but not by much. Over the past four hours, they've been faster than the TWO in the water ahead of them, Burton and Dalin.
The fastest was Bestaven with an average of 18.6 knots, then Boris with 18.0, then Burton with 17.0 and Dalin with an average of 16.3 knots. The speed difference (VMG) between Bestaven and Dalin over the past 4 hours was 2.3 knots. This is huge and represents a gain of 9.2 miles in just four hours!
And it looks like Dalin is the one with the worst location, the most easterly, and will be the one who will continue to sail slower, with less wind. It turns out that Dalin and Burton have different routes unless Dalin makes a tack to the west to follow the same route as Burton or even Boris, but that will make him lose many miles.
It is only in the next 24-36 hours. when they turn north that we will have a better idea of the relative positions, even if they are not going to do it probably at the same point because there is very little wind north of Cape Finisterre and they should follow a route further west (some more than others), a longer route, but with stronger winds.
https://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/tracking-map
All good, except you should not take speed, but rather VMG for calculating standings.
ReplyDeleteCurrently it does not make a lot of difference, but in case they would be beating to windward it would show. Distance to leader id distance toward finish, so VMG is better speed to compare current standing.
The speed I used was VMG speed. The distance to leader is not the distance to the finish, at least not in a straight line, but the distance to waypoints on the "normal" route to sail towards France. Probably they are using Armel's course on the last Vendée as reference.
ReplyDeleteThe reason there is so many discrepancies is because this year the weather patterns were very different and this year's best course proved to be very different from the one on the last edition.