Whoever does the math in the organization places him at 4th, 108 miles from the first which is obviously a nonsense, and I say this for the simple reason that so far Burton's strategy is paying off, having managed to maintain over water an average 2 knots faster than Dalin and having already left the zone of the weakest winds, while Dalin still has a few hours to go. Burton is now 6.3 knots faster than him (on water) but also 5.2 knots faster in VMG.
I would say that when it comes to crossing the high pressure zone without losing time, it is practically a tie between Burton and Dalin. They remain side by side although with a lateral difference of 230 miles, which is huge for this area of the Atlantic.
The organization continues to give the classifications having as reference the most eastern island of the Azores, Santa Maria, which is nonsense because no one, except perhaps Seguin, will pass it by, all going further west. Burton will be the one to pass more to the west probably west of the central group (west of Faial) or even close to Corvo Island, the Azores western Island.
It is now clear what Burton is trying to do and it is unbelievable that he planned this course a week ago in function of what he has ahead now: he will try to avoid the area of high pressure and light winds, that everyone would encounter along the way if they sailed in the direction where the organization considers they are sailing to (island of Stª Maria), and will try to make the most of the strong winds of a storm that comes from the West to the East, and that will dissipate before reaching him at full force.
As usual, Burton is not afraid of strong bets. Will he succeed? Only time will tell but he knows he has to bet strong because in a couple of days, both Dalin and Ruyant will be sailing in good conditions over the side of their intact foil, and these conditions will remain until arrival. Both have new generation boats, with bigger and faster foils and will be one and a half knots faster than Burton’s boat, and there is nothing that Burton can do to counteract that, except to gain in navigation what he cannot gain in speed.
None better to confirm what I'm saying than Ruyant. I saw this video after writing this, but I cannot say that I was not satisfied to see it confirm what I say, almost point by point. Listen to what he says, the best race assessment I have seen in a long time.
Vendée: UNTIL THE END: DRAG RACE WITH SOME NAVIGATION
ReplyDeleteI thought Burton could choose to take a slightly more western course, longer but with stronger winds, but it is possible that both, he and Dalin, chose the same crossing point in the Azores, between the islands of São Miguel and Terceira.
Or not, because Dalin, although it seems to be the best route, would have to jib to change tack to achieve this and would lose many miles. He is already sailing and will continue to sail with wind coming from a worse angle than the one Burton has. At this point, the speed difference is almost two knots.
Burton has put him a rock and a hard place: either he jibs or changes tack to put himself on the same course as Burton (unlikely) or continues on the same course and will inevitably pass east of the Island of Santa Maria, the most usual route, but one that I doubt will be the best this year.
To understand the game, in addition to Burton's speed gain, which from now on should decrease and be no more than a knot, it is necessary to see the weather map in 60 hours (with the position where both must be at the time) and the weather map in 96 hours, when they are already in the final phase of the race.
https://www.facebook.com/paulo.pernao/posts/1916883395118881
Between one point and another (60 and 96 hours) there are chances that the race will be defined, because different crossing points through the Azores will determine different routes.
Unless Burton decides to change his positional advantage for speed and decides to pass well ahead, where Dalin will pass, east of Stª Maria. If so the courses until the end should not be very different and Dalin will be sailing on his good foil most of the time. That means with a boat faster than Burton's.
Not to forget Boris, the Joker, who has been able to keep close to Dalin. If he maintains this difference and Burton and Dalin arrive really close to each other, he will probably win the Vendée, because the first one to cross the finish line will need to do it at least 6 hours and 15 minutes before him, otherwise the winner will be him, even cutting the finish line in third place.
Last update shows him slow and then gybing. Don't get that. Breakage maybe?
ReplyDeleteI also noticed that. Or he had some problem with the sails and had to turn downwind to fixe it or he wanted to relocate himself more the the west due to the meteo ahead.
DeleteAs you have noticed he is route is more to the East that what I had anticipated probably because Dalin is going also more to the East than what would be the best theoretical route.
Maybe he decided that it was too much. As you can see Dalin is losing wind and more to the West there is more wind.